To start
with, I will give you a short introduction, how our atmosphere works and how
climate warming appears in this model, by sharing this video.
To measure
the human impact on climate change, the IPCC uses the concept of radiative
forcing.
„The change
in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus longwave; in W m–2) at the
tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to
radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state
held fixed at the unperturbed values“ Ramaswamy et al. (2001)
With this
concept we can try to measure the importance of the greenhouse gases to
radiative forcing and therefore to our climate. (
5th
IPCC report 2014)
I found a
good graph in the 4th IPCC report 2007, which shows, how the greenhouse gases and other human
driven factors have changed since 1750 and in particular how these changes
influencing the radiative forcing.
Figure 5: 4th IPCC report 2007
Although,
there is an increase in radiative forcing about 1,6 W m-2, there are some human
impacts, like an increase in aerosols, which decrease the radiative forcing. In
addition, concerning my last post about solar variability, you can see at this
graph how small the influence of the solar irradiance to our climate really is.
To conclude
the first part of my blog, nearly every argument in the video, at shared at my
first post, have I proofed as wrong, except for one. Why does the air
temperature did not rise in the last 15 years? I just found an article in a
German newspaper “Der Spiegel”, which is describing a break in warming over
Eurasia in the last 15 years. There are only speculations, why this is
happening. One theory is saying that the Pacific may have absorbed the warmth
or another theory is seeing the reason in the influence of clouds. Low clouds
can cool the air and high clouds can warm it.
Hopefully,
I am going to find out in my next post.
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